← UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs NolanMickey GallZachary Reese

Mickey Gall vs Zachary ReeseUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan

Mickey Gall vs Zachary Reese — Middleweight — was scheduled for Saturday, October 31, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan in Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · MiddleweightID · 9CC85477-9F37-4990-B5BF-BD102CCD5B53
Mickey Gall

Unranked · Middleweight

Mickey Gall

7-7-0 · Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Zachary Reese

Unranked · Middleweight

Zachary Reese

10-4-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Gall

43%

Edge14%

Reese

57%

Skill Comparison

86
89
Striking
72
84
Wrestling
76
73
Cardio
38
52
Takedown Defense
82
82
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

GallMetricReese
6' 2"Height6' 4"
74"Reach77"
34Age32
—Stance—
86%Finish Rate80%

Career Records

GallMetricReese
—Wins by KO/TKO5
6Wins by Submission3
5First-Round Finishes7
3.50Sig. Strikes / Min4.47
4.72Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min4
50%Striking Accuracy54%
50%Striking Defense44%
0.29Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.25
1.15Takedowns / 15 min2.74
16%Takedown Accuracy0%
38%Takedown Defense52%
1.58Submissions / 15 min1.25
08:03Avg. Fight Time06:01

Strike Distribution

Gall

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

79%

Body

16%

Leg

5%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Gall

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 77%Standing77%
Clinch — 11%Clinch11%
Ground — 12%Ground12%

Primary Position Standing

Reese

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

49%

Body

31%

Leg

20%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Reese

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 77%Standing77%
Clinch — 11%Clinch11%
Ground — 13%Ground13%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Gall

Strengths

  • Mickey Gall leads in significant-strike defense (50% vs 44%)
  • A momentum swing could expose the less-tested defensive layer
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison

Weaknesses

  • Zachary Reese leads in significant-strike pace (4.47 vs 3.5)
  • Zachary Reese leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (2.74 vs 1.15)

Opportunities

  • Force Zachary Reese away from the projected win condition
  • Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer

Threats

  • Zachary Reese leads in significant-strike pace (4.47 vs 3.5)
  • Zachary Reese leads in takedown defense (52% vs 38%)
Reese

Strengths

  • Zachary Reese leads in significant-strike pace (4.47 vs 3.5)
  • Zachary Reese leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (2.74 vs 1.15)
  • Zachary Reese leads in takedown defense (52% vs 38%)

Weaknesses

  • Mickey Gall leads in significant-strike defense (50% vs 44%)
  • A momentum swing could expose the less-tested defensive layer

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences

Threats

  • Mickey Gall changing the fight phase
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Reese
Key Advantages
  • Mickey Gall leads in significant-strike defense (50% vs 44%)
  • A momentum swing could expose the less-tested defensive layer
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison
Potential Concerns
  • Zachary Reese leads in significant-strike pace (4.47 vs 3.5)
  • Zachary Reese leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (2.74 vs 1.15)
  • Zachary Reese leads in takedown defense (52% vs 38%)
AI Analysis

Zachary Reese's blend of measurable phase advantages and repeatable scoring routes produces a 57-43 analyst-model lean.

Forecast

Zachary Reese is projected to win the higher share of repeatable scoring exchanges, but the matchup remains competitive and sensitive to early phase control.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Zachary Reese projects best when the fight stays in the phases reflected by the stronger pace and defensive metrics, while Mickey Gall can change the matchup through pressure, transitions and sustained control. The projection stays conservative because career aggregates do not capture every tactical adjustment, and limited UFC samples are down-weighted.

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