← UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs BarcelosAilin PerezNorma Dumont

Ailin Perez vs Norma DumontUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos

Ailin Perez vs Norma Dumont — Women's Bantamweight — is scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos in Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · Women's BantamweightID · B6FD63C8-0469-4FEC-96D4-72939D7072BE
Ailin Perez

Rank #5 · Women's Bantamweight

Ailin Perez

"Fiona"

13-2-0 · Kung Fu

Norma Dumont

Rank #4 · Women's Bantamweight

Norma Dumont

"The Immortal"

13-3-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Perez

48%

Edge4%

Dumont

52%

Skill Comparison

67
71
Striking
60
60
Wrestling
69
69
Cardio
73
72
Takedown Defense
75
74
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

PerezMetricDumont
5' 5"Height5' 7"
66"Reach67"
31Age35
—Stance—
46%Finish Rate—

Career Records

PerezMetricDumont
4Wins by KO/TKO—
2Wins by Submission2
4First-Round Finishes2
2.88Sig. Strikes / Min3.85
1.58Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.33
57%Striking Defense64%
4.90Knockdown Avg / 15 min1.43
73%Takedown Defense72%
0.17Submissions / 15 min0
12:41Avg. Fight Time14:53

Strike Distribution

Perez

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

59%

Body

22%

Leg

19%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Perez

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 48%Standing48%
Clinch — 17%Clinch17%
Ground — 35%Ground35%

Primary Position Standing

Dumont

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

60%

Body

22%

Leg

18%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Dumont

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 81%Standing81%
Clinch — 13%Clinch13%
Ground — 6%Ground6%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Perez

Strengths

  • SApM edge (1.58 vs 2.33)
  • TDD edge (73 vs 72)
  • Sub/15 edge (0.17 vs 0)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Norma Dumont changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Dumont

Strengths

  • SLpM edge (3.85 vs 2.88)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Ailin Perez changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Dumont
Key Advantages
  • SLpM edge (3.85 vs 2.88)
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Ailin Perez can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Dumont's composure and technical control earn a slight lean; Perez's takedown pressure can overturn the matchup if she consistently secures top position.

Forecast

Expect Norma Dumont and Ailin Perez to test the matchup's primary phase early. Norma Dumont is projected to create the more sustainable offense, but the opposing route remains live wherever UFC sample size is thin.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Dumont should prioritize balance, clean exits and making Perez work for every clinch entry. Perez's best route is to compress space, chain attempts and prevent the fight from becoming a measured kickboxing contest. The estimate is an analyst-model forecast built from current UFC data and sample quality, not a market probability.

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