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UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos

Saturday, September 26, 2026 · Meta APEX · Las Vegas

Main Card08:00 PM EDT

Fights11

UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos takes place on Saturday, September 26, 2026 at Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Picks Terminal covers 11 bouts on the card with win probabilities, matchup breakdowns and fight intel. Main event: Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr..

Main Event · BantamweightID · 87DA7766-418B-46D5-B802-95AFF27735D1

Rank #13 · Bantamweight

Raoni Barcelos

22-5-0 · Jiu-Jitsu

Rank #12 · Bantamweight

Raul Rosas Jr.

"El Nino Problema"

13-1-0 · Freestyle

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Barcelos

45%

Edge10%

Jr.

55%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

BarcelosMetricJr.

5' 8"Height5' 9"

67"Reach67"

39Age21

—Stance—

50%Finish Rate62%

Career Records

BarcelosMetricJr.

8Wins by KO/TKO2

3Wins by Submission6

5First-Round Finishes6

4.65Sig. Strikes / Min1.34

4.24Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min1.24

61%Striking Defense53%

2.51Knockdown Avg / 15 min6.10

88%Takedown Defense25%

0.68Submissions / 15 min0.87

13:09Avg. Fight Time10:45

Strike Distribution

Barcelos

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

73%

Body

14%

Leg

13%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing74%

Clinch7%

Ground19%

Primary Position Standing

Jr.

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

66%

Body

11%

Leg

23%

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing63%

Clinch1%

Ground36%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Jr.

Key Advantages

SLpM edge (4.65 vs 1.34)
TDD edge (88 vs 25)

Potential Concerns

Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
Raul Rosas Jr. can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.

AI Analysis

Rosas' takedown volume and scrambling pace offer the more repeatable control route; Barcelos' defensive wrestling and cleaner striking keep the veteran highly competitive.

Forecast

Expect Raul Rosas Jr. and Raoni Barcelos to test the matchup's primary phase early. Raoni Barcelos is projected to create the more sustainable offense, but the opposing route remains live wherever UFC sample size is thin.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Rosas should press combinations into level changes and force extended grappling sequences. Barcelos can reverse the matchup by denying the first entries, making Rosas reset at range and punishing increasingly predictable shots. The estimate is an analyst-model forecast built from current UFC data and sample quality, not a market probability.

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