← UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs BarcelosChristian EdwardsRodolfo Bellato

Christian Edwards vs Rodolfo BellatoUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos

Christian Edwards vs Rodolfo Bellato — Light Heavyweight — is scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos in Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · Light HeavyweightID · 218BD538-B747-4A32-932A-54DC8B4268FD
Christian Edwards

Unranked · Light Heavyweight

Christian Edwards

"Pain"

8-5-0 · MMA

Rodolfo Bellato

Unranked · Light Heavyweight

Rodolfo Bellato

"Trator"

13-3-1 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Edwards

38%

Edge24%

Bellato

62%

Skill Comparison

68
77
Striking
57
64
Wrestling
69
69
Cardio
—
94
Takedown Defense
74
67
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

EdwardsMetricBellato
6' 5"Height6' 3"
—Reach77.5"
27Age30
—Stance—
75%Finish Rate92%

Career Records

EdwardsMetricBellato
4Wins by KO/TKO8
2Wins by Submission4
4First-Round Finishes9
2.40Sig. Strikes / Min5.37
2.40Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min5.86
55%Striking Defense47%
0Knockdown Avg / 15 min1.38
—Takedown Defense94%
0Submissions / 15 min0.23
15:00Avg. Fight Time09:20

Strike Distribution

Edwards

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Body

Head

36%

Body

47%

Leg

17%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Edwards

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 75%Standing75%
Clinch — 25%Clinch25%
Ground — 0%Ground0%

Primary Position Standing

Bellato

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

62%

Body

21%

Leg

17%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Bellato

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 60%Standing60%
Clinch — 19%Clinch19%
Ground — 21%Ground21%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Edwards

Strengths

  • SApM edge (2.4 vs 5.86)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Rodolfo Bellato changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Bellato

Strengths

  • SLpM edge (5.37 vs 2.4)
  • Sub/15 edge (0.23 vs 0)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Christian Edwards changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Bellato
Key Advantages
  • SLpM edge (5.37 vs 2.4)
  • Sub/15 edge (0.23 vs 0)
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Christian Edwards can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Bellato's broader UFC sample and finishing routes create the steadier projection; Edwards needs to disrupt the pace and avoid extended exchanges.

Forecast

Expect Rodolfo Bellato and Christian Edwards to test the matchup's primary phase early. Rodolfo Bellato is projected to create the more sustainable offense, but the opposing route remains live wherever UFC sample size is thin.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Bellato can build offense across phases and pressure Edwards into defensive reactions. Edwards' route is to keep the fight structured, win first-contact exchanges and prevent Bellato from layering volume into grappling control. The estimate is an analyst-model forecast built from current UFC data and sample quality, not a market probability.

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