← UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs BarcelosMelissa AmayaValesca Machado

Melissa Amaya vs Valesca MachadoUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos

Melissa Amaya vs Valesca Machado — Women's Strawweight — is scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos in Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · Women's StrawweightID · 780AE2AA-3AB0-42B0-9408-028EE5EB8DB3

Unranked · Women's Strawweight

Melissa Amaya

8-0-0 · MMA

Valesca Machado

Unranked · Women's Strawweight

Valesca Machado

"Tina Black"

15-4-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Amaya

48%

Edge4%

Machado

52%

Skill Comparison

67
66
Striking
57
61
Wrestling
63
69
Cardio
—
77
Takedown Defense
72
73
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

AmayaMetricMachado
—Height5' 4"
—Reach63.5"
31Age30
—Stance—
—Finish Rate—

Career Records

AmayaMetricMachado
—Sig. Strikes / Min2.40
—Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.87
—Striking Defense64%
—Knockdown Avg / 15 min0
—Takedown Defense77%
—Submissions / 15 min0
00:00Avg. Fight Time15:00

Strike Distribution

Machado

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

69%

Body

19%

Leg

11%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Machado

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 83%Standing83%
Clinch — 17%Clinch17%
Ground — 0%Ground0%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Amaya

Strengths

  • More complete available official UFC profile

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Valesca Machado changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Machado

Strengths

  • More complete available official UFC profile

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Melissa Amaya changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Machado
Key Advantages
  • More complete available official UFC profile
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Valesca Machado can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Machado's experience produces a slight edge; Amaya's unbeaten momentum and physical pressure make the small-sample matchup volatile.

Forecast

Expect Melissa Amaya and Valesca Machado to test the matchup's primary phase early. Melissa Amaya is projected to create the more sustainable offense, but the opposing route remains live wherever UFC sample size is thin.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Amaya can tilt the fight through forward pressure and sustained clinch work, while Machado benefits from cleaner exits and a measured pace. The forecast remains deliberately close because Amaya's UFC-level sample is limited. The estimate is an analyst-model forecast built from current UFC data and sample quality, not a market probability.

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