← UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs BarcelosMontel JacksonRicky Simon

Montel Jackson vs Ricky SimonUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos

Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simon — Bantamweight — is scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos in Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · BantamweightID · 01A6165A-2FCC-42FC-88D3-9CED845C07C6
Montel Jackson

Unranked · Bantamweight

Montel Jackson

"Quik"

15-4-0 · MMA

Ricky Simon

Unranked · Bantamweight

Ricky Simon

22-7-1 · Wrestling

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Jackson

58%

Edge16%

Simon

42%

Skill Comparison

69
68
Striking
59
61
Wrestling
69
69
Cardio
67
77
Takedown Defense
76
71
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

JacksonMetricSimon
5' 10"Height5' 6"
75.5"Reach69"
34Age33
—Stance—
60%Finish Rate50%

Career Records

JacksonMetricSimon
8Wins by KO/TKO7
1Wins by Submission4
7First-Round Finishes7
3.02Sig. Strikes / Min3.03
1.40Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.90
60%Striking Defense61%
2.71Knockdown Avg / 15 min4.49
67%Takedown Defense77%
0.29Submissions / 15 min0.26
11:04Avg. Fight Time12:49

Strike Distribution

Jackson

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

72%

Body

19%

Leg

9%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Jackson

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 57%Standing57%
Clinch — 23%Clinch23%
Ground — 19%Ground19%

Primary Position Standing

Simon

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

71%

Body

16%

Leg

13%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Simon

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 79%Standing79%
Clinch — 9%Clinch9%
Ground — 12%Ground12%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Jackson

Strengths

  • SApM edge (1.4 vs 3.9)
  • Sub/15 edge (0.29 vs 0.26)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Ricky Simon changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Simon

Strengths

  • SLpM edge (3.03 vs 3.02)
  • TDD edge (77 vs 67)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Montel Jackson changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Jackson
Key Advantages
  • SLpM edge (3.03 vs 3.02)
  • TDD edge (77 vs 67)
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Montel Jackson can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Jackson's length, power and defensive athleticism offer the cleaner route; Simon's chain wrestling remains the principal test.

Forecast

Expect Montel Jackson and Ricky Simon to test the matchup's primary phase early. Ricky Simon is projected to create the more sustainable offense, but the opposing route remains live wherever UFC sample size is thin.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Jackson can control the fight by maintaining long-range offense and making Simon pay for visible entries. Simon needs repeated takedown attempts, fence pressure and mat returns to prevent Jackson from settling into a measured striking rhythm. The estimate is an analyst-model forecast built from current UFC data and sample quality, not a market probability.

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