← UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs BarcelosRaoni BarcelosRaul Rosas Jr.

Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr.UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos

Raoni Barcelos vs Raul Rosas Jr. — Bantamweight — is scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos in Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Event · BantamweightID · 87DA7766-418B-46D5-B802-95AFF27735D1
Raoni Barcelos

Rank #13 · Bantamweight

Raoni Barcelos

22-5-0 · Jiu-Jitsu

Raul Rosas Jr.

Rank #12 · Bantamweight

Raul Rosas Jr.

"El Nino Problema"

13-1-0 · Freestyle

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Barcelos

45%

Edge10%

Jr.

55%

Skill Comparison

73
63
Striking
64
53
Wrestling
69
69
Cardio
88
25
Takedown Defense
70
76
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

BarcelosMetricJr.
5' 8"Height5' 9"
67"Reach67"
39Age21
—Stance—
50%Finish Rate62%

Career Records

BarcelosMetricJr.
8Wins by KO/TKO2
3Wins by Submission6
5First-Round Finishes6
4.65Sig. Strikes / Min1.34
4.24Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min1.24
61%Striking Defense53%
2.51Knockdown Avg / 15 min6.10
88%Takedown Defense25%
0.68Submissions / 15 min0.87
13:09Avg. Fight Time10:45

Strike Distribution

Barcelos

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

73%

Body

14%

Leg

13%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Barcelos

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 74%Standing74%
Clinch — 7%Clinch7%
Ground — 19%Ground19%

Primary Position Standing

Jr.

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

66%

Body

11%

Leg

23%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Jr.

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 63%Standing63%
Clinch — 1%Clinch1%
Ground — 36%Ground36%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Barcelos

Strengths

  • SLpM edge (4.65 vs 1.34)
  • TDD edge (88 vs 25)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Raul Rosas Jr. changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Jr.

Strengths

  • SApM edge (1.24 vs 4.24)
  • Sub/15 edge (0.87 vs 0.68)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Raoni Barcelos changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Jr.
Key Advantages
  • SLpM edge (4.65 vs 1.34)
  • TDD edge (88 vs 25)
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Raul Rosas Jr. can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Rosas' takedown volume and scrambling pace offer the more repeatable control route; Barcelos' defensive wrestling and cleaner striking keep the veteran highly competitive.

Forecast

Expect Raul Rosas Jr. and Raoni Barcelos to test the matchup's primary phase early. Raoni Barcelos is projected to create the more sustainable offense, but the opposing route remains live wherever UFC sample size is thin.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Rosas should press combinations into level changes and force extended grappling sequences. Barcelos can reverse the matchup by denying the first entries, making Rosas reset at range and punishing increasingly predictable shots. The estimate is an analyst-model forecast built from current UFC data and sample quality, not a market probability.

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