← UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs BarcelosVanessa DemopoulosYazmin Jauregui

Vanessa Demopoulos vs Yazmin JaureguiUFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos

Vanessa Demopoulos vs Yazmin Jauregui — Women's Strawweight — is scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos in Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · Women's StrawweightID · 013C1B5E-E70F-4A6C-9BED-E32316FA0647
Vanessa Demopoulos

Unranked · Women's Strawweight

Vanessa Demopoulos

"Lil Monster"

11-8-0 · Jiu-Jitsu

Yazmin Jauregui

Unranked · Women's Strawweight

Yazmin Jauregui

11-2-0 · Freestyle

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Demopoulos

35%

Edge30%

Jauregui

65%

Skill Comparison

67
78
Striking
52
65
Wrestling
69
69
Cardio
26
100
Takedown Defense
68
68
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

DemopoulosMetricJauregui
5' 2"Height5' 3"
—Reach64"
37Age25
—Stance—
45%Finish Rate—

Career Records

DemopoulosMetricJauregui
1Wins by KO/TKO7
4Wins by Submission—
4First-Round Finishes5
3.37Sig. Strikes / Min6.64
5.39Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min5.25
41%Striking Defense55%
0.32Knockdown Avg / 15 min0
26%Takedown Defense100%
0.43Submissions / 15 min0
12:48Avg. Fight Time08:30

Strike Distribution

Demopoulos

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

64%

Body

24%

Leg

12%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Demopoulos

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 76%Standing76%
Clinch — 13%Clinch13%
Ground — 11%Ground11%

Primary Position Standing

Jauregui

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

62%

Body

17%

Leg

21%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Jauregui

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 82%Standing82%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Ground — 8%Ground8%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Demopoulos

Strengths

  • Sub/15 edge (0.43 vs 0)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Yazmin Jauregui changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Jauregui

Strengths

  • SLpM edge (6.64 vs 3.37)
  • SApM edge (5.25 vs 5.39)
  • TDD edge (100 vs 26)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Vanessa Demopoulos changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Jauregui
Key Advantages
  • SLpM edge (6.64 vs 3.37)
  • SApM edge (5.25 vs 5.39)
  • TDD edge (100 vs 26)
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Vanessa Demopoulos can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Jauregui's sharper boxing and sustained output create the clearest striking advantage on the card; Demopoulos needs grappling transitions and opportunistic submissions.

Forecast

Expect Vanessa Demopoulos and Yazmin Jauregui to test the matchup's primary phase early. Yazmin Jauregui is projected to create the more sustainable offense, but the opposing route remains live wherever UFC sample size is thin.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Jauregui can take control through combinations, body work and disciplined distance. Demopoulos must break that rhythm with clinches or takedown attempts, because prolonged open-space striking strongly favors Jauregui. The estimate is an analyst-model forecast built from current UFC data and sample quality, not a market probability.

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