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Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday Early · Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ETJAX @ CIN
Jacksonville Jaguars

Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

2-1

Cincinnati Bengals

Home

Cincinnati Bengals

2-1

Model Win Probability

Jacksonville Jaguars · Away

53%

Model
separation6%

Cincinnati Bengals · Home

47%

Signal: Unrated· components agree · 100% feature coverage
Elo component
54% JAX
Efficiency component
56% JAX
Feature coverage
100%
Data cutoff
2026-09-29T03:18:28.737160Z
Model
pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3

Signal strength describes model agreement and data quality, not certainty or wagering value.

Team Efficiency Comparison

77
52
Offense
77
35
Passing
74
90
Rushing
90
23
Defense
32
29
Pass Rush
90
82
Situational

0–100 league percentile across all 32 teams. Defensive ratings are inverted so a higher number always means a better unit.

Blended Team Metrics

JAXMetricCIN
0.071EPA / Play0.016
46.7%Success Rate45.7%
0.161Dropback EPA0.022
-0.049Rush EPA-0.008
12.9%Explosive Play Rate12.5%
45.0%3rd Down Conversion45.1%
70.2%Red Zone TD Rate64.3%
-0.083Def. EPA / Play Allowed0.073

Prior-season form is blended with current-season play and its weight decays as the current sample grows. Metrics without enough data are shown as “—”, never as zero.

Game Context

Venue
Paycor Stadium
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Roof
outdoors
Surface
fieldturf
Away rest
7 days
Home rest
7 days
Site
Cincinnati Bengals home game

Player Impact

Trevor Lawrence

QB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

CMP/ATT
54/81
Pass yds
616
Pass TD
7
INT
2
Y/A
7.6
Sacks
4

Bhayshul Tuten

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Carries
43
Rush yds
204
YPC
4.7
Rush TD
2
Targets
5
Rec
5
Rush share
50%

Chris Rodriguez Jr.

RB

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Carries
20
Rush yds
73
YPC
3.6
Rush TD
1
Targets
0
Rec
0
Rush share
23.3%

Parker Washington

WR

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Targets
23
Rec
15
Rec yds
221
YPR
14.7
Rec TD
2
Target share
30.3%

Brian Thomas Jr.

WR

2026 Weeks 1, 2, 3

Targets
12
Rec
7
Rec yds
88
YPR
12.6
Rec TD
0
Target share
15.8%

Scoring by Quarter

Sample · 3 games

Away · Jacksonville Jaguars

Q1
14
Q2
34
Q3
27
Q4
7

Home · Cincinnati Bengals

Q1
21
Q2
27
Q3
16
Q4
16

Small sample — treat quarter splits as descriptive context, not a trend.

Latest News

Analytical Angles

Passing profile · JAX

passing

Jacksonville Jaguars ranks in the 77th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.

Defense profile · JAX

efficiency

Jacksonville Jaguars ranks in the 90th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.

Passing profile · CIN

passing

Cincinnati Bengals ranks in the 35th league percentile in blended dropback EPA entering Week 4.

Defense profile · CIN

efficiency

Cincinnati Bengals ranks in the 23th league percentile in blended defensive EPA allowed; higher percentile means less EPA conceded.

Statistical context only. Picks Terminal publishes matchup analysis, not wagering advice.

Keys to the Game

  • Margin-aware Elo favors Jacksonville Jaguars at 53.8%.
  • Rolling efficiency favors Jacksonville Jaguars at 55.8%.
  • The calibrated estimate is 53%; it is a probability, not a certainty.

What Could Flip It

  • The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Jacksonville Jaguars and 3 for Cincinnati Bengals; prior-season form is still blended in.
  • The components agree, but a single game still has substantial variance.
  • The first official Week 4 practice/game-status report was unavailable at this cutoff; documented quarterback news is listed separately and is not explicitly priced into this statistical model.

Model Analysis

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals: the v0.3 ensemble places Jacksonville Jaguars at 53% after a 70% margin-aware Elo and 30% rolling efficiency blend with strictly out-of-fold calibration. The statistical sample includes 3 current-season games for Jacksonville Jaguars and 3 for Cincinnati Bengals; prior-season form is still blended in. No odds, moneylines, spreads, public picks or market consensus are model inputs.

Forecast

Model pick: Jacksonville Jaguars (53%). Signal: Unrated; model agreement and coverage, not wagering value.

Sources & Methodology

Win probability: pt-nfl-ensemble-v0.3 — a deterministic ensemble of a margin-aware Elo component and a regularized efficiency component built from pregame team differentials (EPA per play, dropback and rush EPA, success rate, explosive rate, sack performance, home field and rest). The blended probability is calibrated on training seasons only and validated by walk-forward backtest against completed results. All inputs come from public play-by-play and schedule data. No external market data of any kind is used anywhere on this page.