UFC 331: Van vs Pantoja 2 features an intriguing Bantamweight clash at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles on September 20, 2026. Charles Jourdain enters this contest with a record of 18-8-1, facing the tenth-ranked Marlon Vera, who brings a veteran record of 23-12-1. This matchup pits Jourdain's high-volume striking against Vera's durable counter-fighting style. With Jourdain holding a win probability of 53, the model suggests a highly competitive encounter where activity levels could prove to be the deciding factor over three rounds.
Striking Volume and Defensive Metrics
The primary statistical divergence in this matchup lies in the striking output. Charles Jourdain maintains a significant edge in strikes landed per minute, connecting at a rate of 5.36 compared to 4.18 for Marlon Vera. This offensive activity is complemented by superior defensive numbers, as Jourdain absorbs only 4.11 strikes per minute while Vera takes 5.34. Jourdain's striking defense percentage of 57 further illustrates his ability to avoid clean exchanges compared to Vera's 50. While Vera possesses a higher knockdown average of 0.47, Jourdain's ability to maintain a higher pace and sustain offense could allow him to build an early lead. Jourdain targets the head with 54 percent of his significant strikes, but he also utilizes a diverse attack with 29 percent to the body and 18 percent to the legs to disrupt his opponent's rhythm.
Grappling Dynamics and Submission Threats
Despite being labeled a striker, Charles Jourdain has developed a dangerous opportunistic grappling game, evidenced by 7 wins by submission and a submission average of 0.61. However, Marlon Vera, categorized as a grappler, holds a slight statistical advantage in this domain with a submission average of 0.76 and 10 wins by submission. Vera's takedown defense is a critical factor here, sitting at a robust 72 percent, which may make it difficult for Jourdain to implement the reactive grappling mentioned in the forecast. Jourdain's own takedown defense is lower at 47 percent, potentially giving Vera an opening to dictate where the fight takes place. If the fight hits the canvas, both men have shown the ability to end the contest, contributing to their high finish rates of 83 percent for Jourdain and 78 percent for Vera.
Durability and Chin Resilience
Durability is a cornerstone of both fighters' identities, though the model provides specific ratings for their resilience. Charles Jourdain carries a chin durability rating of 70, slightly edging out Marlon Vera's 68. This is particularly relevant given that Vera often relies on his ability to absorb damage while reading his opponent's patterns. The average fight time for Vera is longer at 13:36, suggesting he is comfortable in prolonged battles, whereas Jourdain finishes his nights slightly earlier with an average fight time of 11:31. While Vera has 8 wins by knockout, Jourdain matches that total with 8 of his own. The model notes that one high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline, making the slight difference in chin durability a factor if the fighters engage in heavy pocket exchanges late in the contest.
Pace and Tactical Execution
The tactical battle will likely be determined by who controls the tempo of the exchanges. Charles Jourdain is projected to create more sustainable offense, which aligns with his higher striking volume and younger age of 30 compared to Vera at 33. The matchup breakdown suggests Jourdain must build volume early, as Vera historically benefits from a slower fight that allows him to land heavier counters. Vera's strategy often involves a slow start, but he remains dangerous throughout, utilizing a leg-heavy attack with 24 percent of his strikes targeting the lower extremities to compromise his opponent's mobility. Jourdain’s cardio rating of 69 matches Vera’s 69, indicating that neither fighter has a distinct advantage in pure conditioning, placing the emphasis on tactical efficiency and the ability to maintain output through the final minutes.
Model Forecast and Statistical Nuance
The analytical model gives Charles Jourdain a narrow edge due to his activity and submission momentum. However, several potential concerns exist that could shift the outcome. Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable, and the model acknowledges that Marlon Vera can outperform the statistical projection by forcing a different fight phase. Vera's experience against high-level competition is reflected in his number 10 ranking, and his ability to force a slower pace is a live route to victory. The win probability of 53 for Jourdain reflects his statistical advantages in strikes landed per minute and strikes absorbed per minute, but the thin margin suggests that Vera's durability and late-round damage keep the fight highly competitive. The final result will likely hinge on whether Jourdain's volume can overcome Vera's impact and defensive grappling.
Model verdict
The model identifies Charles Jourdain as the higher-probability side with a 53 percent chance of victory, primarily driven by his superior striking volume of 5.36 strikes landed per minute and his 83 percent finish rate. Marlon Vera remains a significant threat due to his 72 percent takedown defense and his ability to land impactful counters, evidenced by a 0.47 knockdown average. While Jourdain is expected to lead the dance with activity, Vera's durability and 13:36 average fight time suggest he is well-equipped to capitalize if Jourdain's pace falters in the later stages.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the key statistical advantages for Charles Jourdain?
- Jourdain holds a clear advantage in striking activity, landing 5.36 strikes per minute compared to Vera's 4.18. Additionally, he is more defensively sound, absorbing only 4.11 strikes per minute while Vera absorbs 5.34. These metrics contribute to his 53 percent win probability.
- How does Marlon Vera's grappling impact the matchup?
- Vera is a seasoned grappler with 10 submission wins and a 72 percent takedown defense rate. His submission average of 0.76 is higher than Jourdain's 0.61, suggesting that if the fight reaches the ground, Vera possesses the technical tools to find a finish despite the model's slight lean toward Jourdain.
- What is the significance of the average fight time for both athletes?
- Marlon Vera has a longer average fight time of 13:36, indicating his comfort in deep waters and his tendency to process information over a longer duration. Charles Jourdain averages 11:31, reflecting his higher finish rate of 83 percent and his need to establish volume early to secure the win.
Informational analysis generated from public statistics and screened by automated quality checks. Not wagering advice.
Standing74%
Clinch18%
Ground8%