← UFC 331: Van vs Pantoja 2Ozzy DiazRyan Gandra

Ozzy Diaz vs Ryan GandraUFC 331: Van vs Pantoja 2

Ozzy Diaz vs Ryan Gandra — Middleweight — is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026 at UFC 331: Van vs Pantoja 2 in Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Early Prelims · MiddleweightID · 965C1A3A-EBEE-4CEF-B689-B03851B73794

Unranked · Middleweight

Ozzy Diaz

10-3-0 · MMA

Unranked · Middleweight

Ryan Gandra

"Problema"

10-1-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Diaz

38%

Edge24%

Gandra

62%

Skill Comparison

Striking

Wrestling

Cardio

100

Takedown Defense

Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

DiazMetricGandra

6' 4"Height6' 1"

79"Reach74.5"

35Age31

—Stance—

90%Finish Rate—

Career Records

DiazMetricGandra

7Wins by KO/TKO6

2Wins by Submission0

6First-Round Finishes7

5.33Sig. Strikes / Min11.71

6.52Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.30

—Striking Accuracy50%

61%Striking Defense74%

0Knockdown Avg / 15 min0

—Takedowns / 15 min0

—Takedown Accuracy0%

50%Takedown Defense100%

0Submissions / 15 min0

07:34Avg. Fight Time01:36

Strike Distribution

Diaz

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

84%

Body

11%

Leg

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing97%

Clinch3%

Ground0%

Primary Position Standing

Gandra

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

86%

Body

11%

Leg

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing77%

Clinch13%

Ground11%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Gandra

Key Advantages

SLpM edge (11.71 vs 5.33)
SApM edge (2.3 vs 6.52)
TDD edge (100 vs 50)

Potential Concerns

Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
Ozzy Diaz can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.

AI Analysis

Gandra's pressure, efficiency and defensive numbers form the more repeatable route; Diaz remains live through power exchanges.

Forecast

Expect Ryan Gandra and Ozzy Diaz to test the matchup's primary phase early. Ryan Gandra is projected to create the more sustainable offense, but the opposing route remains live wherever UFC sample size is thin.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Gandra can take control by backing Diaz toward the fence and sustaining offense without giving up clean counters. Diaz needs space and disciplined shot selection to prevent the fight from becoming a high-output pressure test. The estimate is an analyst-model forecast built from current UFC data and sample quality, not a market probability.