← UFC 331: Van vs Pantoja 2Robelis DespaigneTai Tuivasa

Robelis Despaigne vs Tai TuivasaUFC 331: Van vs Pantoja 2

Robelis Despaigne vs Tai Tuivasa — Heavyweight — is scheduled for Saturday, September 19, 2026 at UFC 331: Van vs Pantoja 2 in Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · HeavyweightID · E13470AE-6F2A-484B-B827-2D9DEDEAE010
Robelis Despaigne

Unranked · Heavyweight

Robelis Despaigne

"The Big Boy"

5-2-0 · Taekwondo

Tai Tuivasa

Unranked · Heavyweight

Tai Tuivasa

"Bam Bam"

15-10-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Despaigne

56%

Edge12%

Tuivasa

44%

Skill Comparison

64
67
Striking
56
58
Wrestling
69
69
Cardio
50
59
Takedown Defense
73
69
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

DespaigneMetricTuivasa
6' 7"Height6' 2"
84"Reach75"
38Age33
—Stance—
—Finish Rate—

Career Records

DespaigneMetricTuivasa
5Wins by KO/TKO14
5First-Round Finishes12
2.11Sig. Strikes / Min3.37
2.54Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min4.61
47%Striking Defense43%
0Knockdown Avg / 15 min0
50%Takedown Defense59%
0Submissions / 15 min0
10:06Avg. Fight Time08:06

Strike Distribution

Despaigne

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

64%

Body

6%

Leg

30%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Despaigne

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 81%Standing81%
Clinch — 16%Clinch16%
Ground — 3%Ground3%

Primary Position Standing

Tuivasa

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

59%

Body

18%

Leg

23%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Tuivasa

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 71%Standing71%
Clinch — 24%Clinch24%
Ground — 5%Ground5%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Despaigne

Strengths

  • SApM edge (2.54 vs 4.61)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Tai Tuivasa changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Tuivasa

Strengths

  • SLpM edge (3.37 vs 2.11)
  • TDD edge (59 vs 50)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Robelis Despaigne changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Despaigne
Key Advantages
  • SLpM edge (3.37 vs 2.11)
  • TDD edge (59 vs 50)
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Robelis Despaigne can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Despaigne's length and straight-line power give him the early striking edge; Tuivasa's experience becomes more valuable if he survives the first wave.

Forecast

Expect Tai Tuivasa and Robelis Despaigne to test the matchup's primary phase early. Tai Tuivasa is projected to create the more sustainable offense, but the opposing route remains live wherever UFC sample size is thin.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Despaigne can punish open-space entries with long-range power, but Tuivasa can narrow the gap through leg attacks, clinch pressure and veteran composure. The forecast is highly sensitive to the first clean heavyweight exchange. The estimate is an analyst-model forecast built from current UFC data and sample quality, not a market probability.

More from this card

Other published long-form breakdowns from the same event.

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