← UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. GuskovIslam DulatovWellington Turman

Islam Dulatov vs Wellington Turman — Welterweight — was scheduled for Saturday, July 25, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov in Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · WelterweightID · ED72D66F-E50F-44D5-A782-603413DAD82B

Rank N/A · Welterweight

Islam Dulatov

"The Ripper"

12-1-0 · Boxing

Rank N/A · Welterweight

Wellington Turman

"The Prodigy"

18-8-0 · Jiu-Jitsu

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Dulatov

78%

Edge56%

Turman

22%

Skill Comparison

95
67
Striking
76
65
Wrestling
84
68
Cardio
95
55
Takedown Defense
88
65
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

DulatovMetricTurman
6'3"Height6'0"
75"Reach72"
27Age27
OrthodoxStanceOrthodox
100%Finish Rate67%

Career Records

DulatovMetricTurman
2Wins by KO/TKO3
0Wins by Submission5
11First-Round Finishes8
8.78Sig. Strikes / Min3.23
4.24Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min4.17
54%Striking Accuracy51%
50%Striking Defense45%
4.39Knockdown Avg / 15 min0
2.20Takedowns / 15 min1.55
100%Takedown Accuracy20%
100%Takedown Defense42%
0Submissions / 15 min0.80
03:25Avg. Fight Time10:44

Strike Distribution

Dulatov

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

82%

Body

17%

Leg

2%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Dulatov

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 77%Standing77%
Clinch — 13%Clinch13%
Ground — 10%Ground10%

Primary Position Standing

Turman

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

59%

Body

21%

Leg

21%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Turman

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 76%Standing76%
Clinch — 16%Clinch16%
Ground — 8%Ground8%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

Kalshi

Dulatov100%
Turman0%

Masses favor Dulatov

View source →

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Dulatov

Strengths

  • Historic striking volume (8.78 SLpM)
  • Exceptional 100% takedown defense
  • Massive 6'3" welterweight frame

Weaknesses

  • Untested in deep waters/3rd rounds
  • 50% strike defense is statistically average
  • Limited high-level UFC experience

Opportunities

  • Exploit Turman's low 45% strike defense
  • Capitalize on opponent's 3-fight skid
  • Boost stock with another Rd 1 finish

Threats

  • Turman's veteran submission game
  • Overextruding and gassing out early
  • Underestimating a desperate veteran
Turman

Strengths

  • High-level BJJ (8 wins by submission)
  • Significant UFC veteran experience
  • Decent clinch striking efficiency

Weaknesses

  • Abysmal takedown accuracy (8%)
  • Fragile striking defense (45%)
  • Negative knockdown differential

Opportunities

  • Drag prospect into deep, late rounds
  • Look for opportunistic club-and-sub
  • Test Dulatov's resolve in the clinch

Threats

  • Dulatov's 4.39 knockdown average
  • Being overwhelmed by 8.78 SLpM pace
  • Size disadvantage against 6'3" foe

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Dulatov
Key Advantages
  • Extreme offensive volume (8.78 SLpM vs Turman's 3.23)
  • Significant height and physical presence at 6'3" for the division
  • Perfect 100% takedown defense against Turman's low 8% accuracy
  • Massive momentum with 11 first-round finishes and high knockdown rate
Potential Concerns
  • Short average fight time (3:25) leaves cardio untested in late rounds
  • Veteran savvy and BJJ threat from Turman if the fight hits the floor
  • Lower striking defense (50%) could leave him open to counters
AI Analysis

A elite-level striking prospect faces a struggling veteran in a classic 'changing of the guard' matchup.

Forecast

Dulatov will likely establish range immediately using his 6'3" frame and elite boxing pedigree. Expect Turman to attempt early, desperate clinches or takedowns to avoid the striking volume, but Dulatov's proven hips should keep the fight standing. Once Dulatov finds his rhythm, the gap in striking power and accuracy will become evident. Given Turman's 45% striking defense and Dulatov's 100% finish rate, a knockout is the most probable outcome. Look for a stoppage in the first round as Dulatov maintains his reputation as a fast starter.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This is a statistical mismatch on the feet. Islam Dulatov operates at a pace (8.78 SLpM) nearly triple that of Wellington Turman, while maintaining a higher knockdown average (4.39). Turman's primary path to victory is through grappling, but his career takedown accuracy is a meager 8% (4 of 48 attempts), which matches up poorly against Dulatov’s 100% defensive rate to date. Turman has also struggled with durability in his UFC tenure and is reportedly on a three-fight losing streak, whereas Dulatov is riding an massive wave of first-round finishes. Unless Turman can weather the initial storm and drag a tired Dulatov into a grappling match, the numbers suggest a swift striking-based victory for the German prospect.

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