← UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs NolanDakota HopeFrancis Marshall

Dakota Hope vs Francis MarshallUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan

Dakota Hope vs Francis Marshall — Featherweight — was scheduled for Saturday, October 31, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan in Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Official result not yet recorded. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · FeatherweightID · 8154A5F4-5766-4678-956B-68F21BEB006B

Unranked · Featherweight

Dakota Hope

11-2-0 · MMA

Unranked · Featherweight

Francis Marshall

10-3-0 · Freestyle

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Hope

54%

Edge8%

Marshall

46%

Skill Comparison

96
83
Striking
82
91
Wrestling
85
81
Cardio
100
89
Takedown Defense
82
84
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

HopeMetricMarshall
5' 6"Height5' 9"
—Reach72"
29Age27
—Stance—
45%Finish Rate60%

Career Records

HopeMetricMarshall
5Wins by KO/TKO1
—Wins by Submission5
5First-Round Finishes3
7.07Sig. Strikes / Min3.19
7Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.45
41%Striking Accuracy34%
34%Striking Defense55%
1Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.34
1Takedowns / 15 min2.71
33%Takedown Accuracy3%
100%Takedown Defense89%
0Submissions / 15 min0.51
15:00Avg. Fight Time11:04

Strike Distribution

Hope

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

58%

Body

41%

Leg

1%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Hope

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 58%Standing58%
Clinch — 42%Clinch42%
Ground — 1%Ground1%

Primary Position Standing

Marshall

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

86%

Body

6%

Leg

8%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Marshall

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 90%Standing90%
Clinch — 3%Clinch3%
Ground — 7%Ground7%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

Hope

Strengths

  • Dakota Hope leads in significant-strike pace (7.07 vs 3.19)
  • Dakota Hope leads in takedown defense (100% vs 89%)
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison

Weaknesses

  • Francis Marshall leads in significant-strike defense (55% vs 34%)
  • Francis Marshall leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (2.71 vs 1)

Opportunities

  • Force Francis Marshall away from the projected win condition
  • Exploit transitions after the first defensive layer

Threats

  • Francis Marshall leads in significant-strike defense (55% vs 34%)
  • Francis Marshall leads in submission activity per 15 minutes (0.51 vs 0)
Marshall

Strengths

  • Francis Marshall leads in significant-strike defense (55% vs 34%)
  • Francis Marshall leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (2.71 vs 1)
  • Francis Marshall leads in submission activity per 15 minutes (0.51 vs 0)

Weaknesses

  • Dakota Hope leads in significant-strike pace (7.07 vs 3.19)
  • Dakota Hope leads in takedown defense (100% vs 89%)

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase early
  • Turn measurable advantages into repeatable scoring sequences

Threats

  • Dakota Hope changing the fight phase
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Hope
Key Advantages
  • Dakota Hope leads in significant-strike pace (7.07 vs 3.19)
  • Dakota Hope leads in takedown defense (100% vs 89%)
  • Small samples add uncertainty to the numerical comparison
Potential Concerns
  • Francis Marshall leads in significant-strike defense (55% vs 34%)
  • Francis Marshall leads in takedown activity per 15 minutes (2.71 vs 1)
  • Francis Marshall leads in submission activity per 15 minutes (0.51 vs 0)
AI Analysis

Dakota Hope's blend of measurable phase advantages and repeatable scoring routes produces a 54-46 analyst-model lean.

Forecast

Dakota Hope is projected to win the higher share of repeatable scoring exchanges, but the matchup remains competitive and sensitive to early phase control.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

Francis Marshall projects best when the fight stays in the phases reflected by the stronger pace and defensive metrics, while Dakota Hope can change the matchup through pressure, transitions and sustained control. The projection stays conservative because career aggregates do not capture every tactical adjustment, and limited UFC samples are down-weighted.

Picks Terminal Weekly

A concise NFL and UFC/MMA briefing — Monday previews, Friday updates.

Key matchups, model signals, and the stories worth knowing across both sports. Free, no fluff, one-click unsubscribe.