← UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs ParnasseDaniil DonchenkoPunahele Soriano

Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele SorianoUFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse

Daniil Donchenko vs Punahele Soriano — Welterweight — is scheduled for Saturday, September 5, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse in Accor Arena, Paris. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · WelterweightID · 79611BAB-7F38-43A4-A9B3-324722D316C1

Unranked · Welterweight

Daniil Donchenko

15-2-0 · Kickboxer

Punahele Soriano

Unranked · Welterweight

Punahele Soriano

"Puna"

13-4-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Donchenko

62%

Edge24%

Soriano

38%

Skill Comparison

87
72
Striking
60
56
Wrestling
69
69
Cardio
75
49
Takedown Defense
73
72
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

DonchenkoMetricSoriano
5' 11"Height5' 11"
71"Reach72.5"
25Age33
—Stance—
80%Finish Rate69%

Career Records

DonchenkoMetricSoriano
10Wins by KO/TKO7
2Wins by Submission2
5First-Round Finishes8
8.07Sig. Strikes / Min4.42
2.80Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.31
70%Striking Defense47%
0.58Knockdown Avg / 15 min1.97
75%Takedown Defense49%
0Submissions / 15 min0.12
08:41Avg. Fight Time10:08

Strike Distribution

Donchenko

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

43%

Body

26%

Leg

31%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Donchenko

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 79%Standing79%
Clinch — 11%Clinch11%
Ground — 10%Ground10%

Primary Position Standing

Soriano

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

78%

Body

20%

Leg

3%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Soriano

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 50%Standing50%
Clinch — 8%Clinch8%
Ground — 43%Ground43%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Donchenko

Strengths

  • SLpM edge (8.07 vs 4.42)
  • SApM edge (2.8 vs 3.31)
  • TDD edge (75 vs 49)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Punahele Soriano changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Soriano

Strengths

  • Sub/15 edge (0.12 vs 0)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Daniil Donchenko changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Donchenko
Key Advantages
  • SLpM edge (8.07 vs 4.42)
  • SApM edge (2.8 vs 3.31)
  • TDD edge (75 vs 49)
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Punahele Soriano can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Daniil Donchenko has the more repeatable statistical and stylistic route, while Punahele Soriano retains a credible path if the fight settles in the preferred phase.

Forecast

Expect Daniil Donchenko and Punahele Soriano to test the matchup's primary phase early. Daniil Donchenko is projected to create the more sustainable offense, but the opposing route remains live wherever UFC sample size is thin.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This welterweight matchup turns on phase control and sustainable output. The available official UFC rates produce a 62% analyst-model lean toward Daniil Donchenko. Confidence is reduced for debutants and fighters with small UFC samples, and missing values are deliberately left null.

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