← UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs ParnasseFelipe LimaMorgan Charriere

Felipe Lima vs Morgan CharriereUFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse

Felipe Lima vs Morgan Charriere — Featherweight — is scheduled for Saturday, September 5, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse in Accor Arena, Paris. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · FeatherweightID · 0FC7174C-22F4-4721-AD99-82F3657464EC
Felipe Lima

Unranked · Featherweight

Felipe Lima

"Jungle Boy"

14-2-0 · Striker

Morgan Charriere

Unranked · Featherweight

Morgan Charriere

"The Last Pirate"

21-12-1 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Lima

49%

Edge2%

Charriere

51%

Skill Comparison

68
73
Striking
63
62
Wrestling
69
69
Cardio
86
83
Takedown Defense
73
69
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

LimaMetricCharriere
5' 6"Height5' 8"
68"Reach69"
28Age30
—Stance—
50%Finish Rate76%

Career Records

LimaMetricCharriere
4Wins by KO/TKO13
3Wins by Submission3
5First-Round Finishes8
2.86Sig. Strikes / Min4.02
2.91Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min4.51
65%Striking Defense54%
2.18Knockdown Avg / 15 min2.06
86%Takedown Defense83%
0.73Submissions / 15 min0.29
13:45Avg. Fight Time08:30

Strike Distribution

Lima

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

59%

Body

23%

Leg

18%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Lima

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 88%Standing88%
Clinch — 10%Clinch10%
Ground — 2%Ground2%

Primary Position Standing

Charriere

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

60%

Body

24%

Leg

16%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Charriere

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 89%Standing89%
Clinch — 6%Clinch6%
Ground — 5%Ground5%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Lima

Strengths

  • SApM edge (2.91 vs 4.51)
  • TDD edge (86 vs 83)
  • Sub/15 edge (0.73 vs 0.29)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Morgan Charriere changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Charriere

Strengths

  • SLpM edge (4.02 vs 2.86)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Felipe Lima changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Charriere
Key Advantages
  • SLpM edge (4.02 vs 2.86)
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Felipe Lima can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Morgan Charriere has the more repeatable statistical and stylistic route, while Felipe Lima retains a credible path if the fight settles in the preferred phase.

Forecast

Expect Morgan Charriere and Felipe Lima to test the matchup's primary phase early. Morgan Charriere is projected to create the more sustainable offense, but the opposing route remains live wherever UFC sample size is thin.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This featherweight matchup turns on phase control and sustainable output. The available official UFC rates produce a 51% analyst-model lean toward Morgan Charriere. Confidence is reduced for debutants and fighters with small UFC samples, and missing values are deliberately left null.

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