← UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs ParnasseMairon SantosNathaniel Wood

Mairon Santos vs Nathaniel WoodUFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse

Mairon Santos vs Nathaniel Wood — Featherweight — is scheduled for Saturday, September 5, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse in Accor Arena, Paris. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · FeatherweightID · F9745734-EB3A-401E-A9E5-0A18D6C469C2
Mairon Santos

Unranked · Featherweight

Mairon Santos

"The Legend"

18-1-0 · Striker

Nathaniel Wood

Unranked · Featherweight

Nathaniel Wood

"The Last Kingsman"

23-6-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Santos

45%

Edge10%

Wood

55%

Skill Comparison

70
76
Striking
59
61
Wrestling
69
69
Cardio
69
73
Takedown Defense
74
70
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

SantosMetricWood
5' 7"Height5' 6"
72"Reach69"
25Age32
—Stance—
—Finish Rate57%

Career Records

SantosMetricWood
9Wins by KO/TKO8
—Wins by Submission5
4First-Round Finishes7
3.33Sig. Strikes / Min5.64
2.24Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min4.25
66%Striking Defense54%
0Knockdown Avg / 15 min1.35
69%Takedown Defense73%
0Submissions / 15 min0.47
11:43Avg. Fight Time13:32

Strike Distribution

Santos

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

49%

Body

26%

Leg

24%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Santos

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 88%Standing88%
Clinch — 9%Clinch9%
Ground — 3%Ground3%

Primary Position Standing

Wood

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

55%

Body

10%

Leg

34%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Wood

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 87%Standing87%
Clinch — 5%Clinch5%
Ground — 8%Ground8%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Santos

Strengths

  • SApM edge (2.24 vs 4.25)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Nathaniel Wood changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Wood

Strengths

  • SLpM edge (5.64 vs 3.33)
  • TDD edge (73 vs 69)
  • Sub/15 edge (0.47 vs 0)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Mairon Santos changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Wood
Key Advantages
  • SLpM edge (5.64 vs 3.33)
  • TDD edge (73 vs 69)
  • Sub/15 edge (0.47 vs 0)
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Mairon Santos can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Nathaniel Wood has the more repeatable statistical and stylistic route, while Mairon Santos retains a credible path if the fight settles in the preferred phase.

Forecast

Expect Nathaniel Wood and Mairon Santos to test the matchup's primary phase early. Nathaniel Wood is projected to create the more sustainable offense, but the opposing route remains live wherever UFC sample size is thin.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This featherweight matchup turns on phase control and sustainable output. The available official UFC rates produce a 55% analyst-model lean toward Nathaniel Wood. Confidence is reduced for debutants and fighters with small UFC samples, and missing values are deliberately left null.

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