← UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs SongAlex PerezSumudaerji

Alex Perez vs SumudaerjiUFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song

Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji — Flyweight — is scheduled for Saturday, August 29, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song in Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · FlyweightID · AA7F49F2-6E7D-45E9-872C-CD2A9F0F06E1

Rank #11 · Flyweight

Alex Perez

26-10-0 · Wrestler

Sumudaerji

Rank #11 · Flyweight

Sumudaerji

"The Tibetan Eagle"

19-7-0 · Striker

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Perez

59%

Edge18%

Sumudaerji

41%

Skill Comparison

65
69
Striking
61
48
Wrestling
86
84
Cardio
74
73
Takedown Defense
81
85
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

PerezMetricSumudaerji
5' 6"Height5' 8"
65.5"Reach72"
34Age30
—Stance—
54%Finish Rate68%

Career Records

PerezMetricSumudaerji
7Wins by KO/TKO13
7Wins by Submission0
12First-Round Finishes10
4.22Sig. Strikes / Min4.40
3.24Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min2.29
45%Striking Accuracy50%
59%Striking Defense63%
0.83Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.38
2.07Takedowns / 15 min0.76
21%Takedown Accuracy0%
74%Takedown Defense73%
0.83Submissions / 15 min0.51
06:47Avg. Fight Time10:44

Strike Distribution

Perez

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

59%

Body

18%

Leg

23%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Perez

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 73%Standing73%
Clinch — 14%Clinch14%
Ground — 14%Ground14%

Primary Position Standing

Sumudaerji

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

61%

Body

15%

Leg

24%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Sumudaerji

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 81%Standing81%
Clinch — 8%Clinch8%
Ground — 11%Ground11%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Perez

Strengths

  • TD/15 edge (2.07 vs 0.76)
  • TDD edge (74 vs 73)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Force a wrestler-first fight
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Sumudaerji changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Sumudaerji

Strengths

  • SLpM edge (4.22 vs 4.4)
  • SApM edge (3.24 vs 2.29)
  • reach edge (65.5 vs 72.0)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Force a striker-first fight
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Alex Perez changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Perez
Key Advantages
  • TD/15 edge (2.07 vs 0.76)
  • TDD edge (74 vs 73)
  • SLpM edge (4.22 vs 4.4)
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Sumudaerji can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Alex Perez has the more repeatable statistical and stylistic route, while Sumudaerji retains a credible upset path if the fight stays in the preferred phase.

Forecast

Expect Alex Perez and Sumudaerji to test the matchup's primary phase early. Alex Perez is projected to create the more sustainable offense over the scheduled distance, but confidence is moderated wherever UFC sample size is thin. The leading projection is Alex Perez by decision or a later finish.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup turns on phase control. Alex Perez brings a wrestler-leaning profile, while Sumudaerji is best described as a striker. The official UFC rates favor Alex Perez across enough repeatable categories to justify a 59% model lean. The opposing route remains live because style, debut-level samples and regional experience are not fully captured by UFC rate statistics.

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