← UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs SongSong YadongUmar Nurmagomedov

Song Yadong vs Umar NurmagomedovUFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song

Song Yadong vs Umar Nurmagomedov — Bantamweight — is scheduled for Saturday, August 29, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song in Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Event · BantamweightID · 93C24B74-6AB0-479F-9C87-5E4511066025

Rank #6 · Bantamweight

Song Yadong

"Kung Fu Kid"

23-9-1 · Striker

Umar Nurmagomedov

Rank #3 · Bantamweight

Umar Nurmagomedov

20-1-0 · Wrestler

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Yadong

36%

Edge28%

Nurmagomedov

64%

Skill Comparison

65
68
Striking
49
72
Wrestling
81
81
Cardio
74
79
Takedown Defense
79
86
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

YadongMetricNurmagomedov
5' 8"Height5' 8"
67"Reach69"
28Age30
—Stance—
57%Finish Rate45%

Career Records

YadongMetricNurmagomedov
9Wins by KO/TKO2
4Wins by Submission7
7First-Round Finishes5
4.34Sig. Strikes / Min3.86
3.81Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min1.86
44%Striking Accuracy56%
55%Striking Defense61%
0.48Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.12
0.82Takedowns / 15 min4.03
3%Takedown Accuracy8%
74%Takedown Defense79%
0.20Submissions / 15 min0.24
13:00Avg. Fight Time14:04

Strike Distribution

Yadong

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

61%

Body

19%

Leg

20%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Yadong

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 86%Standing86%
Clinch — 6%Clinch6%
Ground — 8%Ground8%

Primary Position Standing

Nurmagomedov

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

68%

Body

20%

Leg

11%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Nurmagomedov

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 67%Standing67%
Clinch — 6%Clinch6%
Ground — 27%Ground27%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Yadong

Strengths

  • SLpM edge (3.86 vs 4.34)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Force a striker-first fight
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Umar Nurmagomedov changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Nurmagomedov

Strengths

  • SApM edge (1.86 vs 3.81)
  • TD/15 edge (4.03 vs 0.82)
  • TDD edge (79 vs 74)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Force a wrestler-first fight
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Song Yadong changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Nurmagomedov
Key Advantages
  • SApM edge (1.86 vs 3.81)
  • TD/15 edge (4.03 vs 0.82)
  • SLpM edge (3.86 vs 4.34)
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Song Yadong can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Umar Nurmagomedov has the more repeatable statistical and stylistic route, while Song Yadong retains a credible upset path if the fight stays in the preferred phase.

Forecast

Expect Umar Nurmagomedov and Song Yadong to test the matchup's primary phase early. Umar Nurmagomedov is projected to create the more sustainable offense over the scheduled distance, but confidence is moderated wherever UFC sample size is thin. The leading projection is Umar Nurmagomedov by decision or a later finish.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup turns on phase control. Umar Nurmagomedov brings a wrestler-leaning profile, while Song Yadong is best described as a striker. The official UFC rates favor Umar Nurmagomedov across enough repeatable categories to justify a 64% model lean. The opposing route remains live because style, debut-level samples and regional experience are not fully captured by UFC rate statistics.

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