← UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs SongLevi Rodrigues Jr.Liu Ce

Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs Liu CeUFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song

Levi Rodrigues Jr. vs Liu Ce — Light Heavyweight — is scheduled for Saturday, August 29, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song in Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · Light HeavyweightID · AAFFDDC5-48BB-40C7-934F-0C6F55F34D05

Rank NR · Light Heavyweight

Levi Rodrigues Jr.

"Baby Monster"

5-1-0 · MMA

Rank NR · Light Heavyweight

Liu Ce

"The Oriental Dragon"

3-1-0 · Striker

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Jr.

53%

Edge6%

Ce

47%

Skill Comparison

57
50
Striking
48
50
Wrestling
87
70
Cardio
57
70
Takedown Defense
74
70
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

Jr.MetricCe
6' 0"Height6' 4"
76.5"Reach—
29Age29
—Stance—
100%Finish Rate100%

Career Records

Jr.MetricCe
5Wins by KO/TKO3
0Wins by Submission0
3First-Round Finishes2
2.60Sig. Strikes / Min—
4.60Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min—
51%Striking Accuracy—
29%Striking Defense—
1.50Knockdown Avg / 15 min—
0Takedowns / 15 min—
57%Takedown Defense—
0Submissions / 15 min—
05:00Avg. Fight Time00:00

Strike Distribution

Jr.

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

73%

Body

4%

Leg

23%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Jr.

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 62%Standing62%
Clinch — 12%Clinch12%
Ground — 27%Ground27%

Primary Position Standing

Ce

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Balanced

Head

0%

Body

0%

Leg

0%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Ce

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Jr.

Strengths

  • MMA route
  • Opportunity to disrupt the favorite’s rhythm

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Force a mma-first fight
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Liu Ce changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Ce

Strengths

  • Striker route
  • Opportunity to dictate the preferred phase

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Force a striker-first fight
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Levi Rodrigues Jr. changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Jr.
Key Advantages
  • Striker route
  • Opportunity to dictate the preferred phase
  • MMA route
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Liu Ce can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Levi Rodrigues Jr. has the more repeatable statistical and stylistic route, while Liu Ce retains a credible upset path if the fight stays in the preferred phase.

Forecast

Expect Liu Ce and Levi Rodrigues Jr. to test the matchup's primary phase early. Levi Rodrigues Jr. is projected to create the more sustainable offense over the scheduled distance, but confidence is moderated wherever UFC sample size is thin. The leading projection is Levi Rodrigues Jr. by decision or a later finish.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup turns on phase control. Liu Ce brings a striker-leaning profile, while Levi Rodrigues Jr. is best described as a mma. The official UFC rates favor Levi Rodrigues Jr. across enough repeatable categories to justify a 53% model lean. The opposing route remains live because style, debut-level samples and regional experience are not fully captured by UFC rate statistics.

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