← UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs SongDenise GomesYan Xiaonan

Denise Gomes vs Yan XiaonanUFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song

Denise Gomes vs Yan Xiaonan — Women's Strawweight — is scheduled for Saturday, August 29, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song in Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Co-Main · Women's StrawweightID · A163227D-0EAD-47B1-A481-29BBF5DA004A
Denise Gomes

Rank #14 · Women's Strawweight

Denise Gomes

"Dee"

12-3-0 · Striker

Yan Xiaonan

Rank #4 · Women's Strawweight

Yan Xiaonan

19-5-0 · Striker

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Gomes

43%

Edge14%

Xiaonan

57%

Skill Comparison

67
68
Striking
53
48
Wrestling
83
80
Cardio
67
65
Takedown Defense
81
82
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

GomesMetricXiaonan
5' 2"Height5' 5"
63"Reach63"
26Age37
—Stance—
58%Finish Rate47%

Career Records

GomesMetricXiaonan
7Wins by KO/TKO8
0Wins by Submission1
2First-Round Finishes8
4.43Sig. Strikes / Min4.69
3.16Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.23
49%Striking Accuracy45%
52%Striking Defense60%
0.43Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.15
1.45Takedowns / 15 min0.84
0%Takedown Accuracy0%
67%Takedown Defense65%
0.72Submissions / 15 min0
11:30Avg. Fight Time15:01

Strike Distribution

Gomes

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

49%

Body

26%

Leg

25%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Gomes

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 68%Standing68%
Clinch — 21%Clinch21%
Ground — 11%Ground11%

Primary Position Standing

Xiaonan

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

65%

Body

13%

Leg

21%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Xiaonan

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 87%Standing87%
Clinch — 8%Clinch8%
Ground — 6%Ground6%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Gomes

Strengths

  • SApM edge (3.23 vs 3.16)
  • TD/15 edge (0.84 vs 1.45)
  • TDD edge (65 vs 67)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Force a striker-first fight
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Yan Xiaonan changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Xiaonan

Strengths

  • SLpM edge (4.69 vs 4.43)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Force a striker-first fight
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Denise Gomes changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Xiaonan
Key Advantages
  • SLpM edge (4.69 vs 4.43)
  • SApM edge (3.23 vs 3.16)
  • TD/15 edge (0.84 vs 1.45)
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Denise Gomes can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Yan Xiaonan has the more repeatable statistical and stylistic route, while Denise Gomes retains a credible upset path if the fight stays in the preferred phase.

Forecast

Expect Yan Xiaonan and Denise Gomes to test the matchup's primary phase early. Yan Xiaonan is projected to create the more sustainable offense over the scheduled distance, but confidence is moderated wherever UFC sample size is thin. The leading projection is Yan Xiaonan by decision or a later finish.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup turns on phase control. Yan Xiaonan brings a striker-leaning profile, while Denise Gomes is best described as a striker. The official UFC rates favor Yan Xiaonan across enough repeatable categories to justify a 57% model lean. The opposing route remains live because style, debut-level samples and regional experience are not fully captured by UFC rate statistics.

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