The Women's Strawweight division takes center stage at the Oriental Sports Center in Shanghai for UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song. This matchup features number 4 ranked Yan Xiaonan against number 14 ranked Denise Gomes in a clash of high-level strikers. While Yan Xiaonan enters with a 57% win probability, the model acknowledges that Denise Gomes remains a live threat. The contest serves as a critical crossroads for the divisional rankings on August 29, 2026.
Striking Volume and Accuracy
In a battle between two strikers, the volume metrics suggest a high-paced encounter. Yan Xiaonan leads the offensive output with 4.69 strikes landed per minute, slightly outpacing the 4.43 strikes landed per minute produced by Denise Gomes. However, Gomes demonstrates superior efficiency in her delivery, holding a striking accuracy percentage of 49 compared to the 45 percent accuracy of Yan. The defensive side of the striking game also presents a tactical split. Yan Xiaonan maintains a significant advantage in striking defense percentage at 60, which helps mitigate her 3.23 strikes absorbed per minute. Gomes, while absorbing slightly fewer strikes at 3.16 per minute, has a lower striking defense percentage of 52. These figures suggest that while Yan is more active, Gomes is the more precise counter-striker in open exchanges.
Grappling and Takedown Dynamics
The grappling statistics reveal a surprising divergence in how these two strikers approach the canvas. Denise Gomes actually holds the higher takedown average, recording 1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes, whereas Yan Xiaonan averages 0.84 takedowns. This suggests that Gomes may look to force a different fight phase to disrupt the rhythm of the higher-ranked opponent. Defensively, the margins are razor-thin; Gomes possesses a takedown defense percentage of 67, while Yan sits just behind at 65 percent. A notable differentiator is the submission threat, where Gomes averages 0.72 submissions per 15 minutes. In contrast, Yan Xiaonan has a submission average of 0, indicating she rarely seeks to finish the fight via positional grappling. If the fight hits the floor, the statistical baseline favors the opportunistic submission game of the younger fighter from Brazil.
Durability and Impact Metrics
When analyzing the ability to change the fight with a single blow, Denise Gomes holds a clear edge in power metrics. She maintains a knockdown average of 0.43, which is significantly higher than the 0.15 knockdown average produced by Yan Xiaonan. This power is reflected in their career results, as Gomes has secured 7 wins by knockout compared to 8 for Yan, despite Yan having a much longer career record of 19-5-0. The chin durability ratings are nearly identical, with Yan at 82 and Gomes at 81, suggesting both can weather significant storms. However, the finish rate percentage of 58 for Gomes versus 47 for Yan highlights that the less-favoured fighter is more likely to end the night early. Yan must be wary of the high-impact exchanges that could override her statistical volume advantage.
Targeting and Shot Selection
The tactical approach of each fighter is best illustrated by their significant strike distribution. Yan Xiaonan is highly head-heavy in her attack, directing 65 percent of her significant strikes to the head, with only 13 percent to the body and 21 percent to the legs. Denise Gomes employs a much more diverse offensive strategy. Gomes targets the head 49 percent of the time, but invests heavily in the lower half with 26 percent of her strikes aimed at the body and 25 percent at the legs. This balanced attack could be vital in a long fight, as Gomes works to sap the mobility of the 37-year-old veteran. With an average fight time of 15:01, Yan is accustomed to the long haul, but the varied shot selection from Gomes may create openings that a head-hunting style would otherwise miss.
Model Projections and Phase Control
The model's 57% lean toward Yan Xiaonan is built on her repeatable statistical route and her ability to maintain a higher pace over the scheduled distance. Yan's striking rating of 68 and cardio rating of 80 provide a stable floor for her performance in Shanghai. Conversely, the 43% win probability for Denise Gomes is anchored in her wrestling rating of 53 and her superior takedown average. The model notes that limited samples can reduce certainty, especially where official UFC rates are unavailable for specific regional experiences. The leading projection suggests Yan Xiaonan by decision or a later finish, provided she can navigate the 11:30 average fight time that Gomes typically operates within. The matchup ultimately turns on whether Yan can keep the fight in the striking phase or if Gomes can force the grappling exchanges.
Model verdict
The model identifies Yan Xiaonan as the more likely victor with a 57% probability, driven by her superior striking defense and higher volume of 4.69 strikes landed per minute. However, Denise Gomes retains a credible path to victory through her 0.43 knockdown average and superior 1.45 takedown rate. While Yan is projected to win via decision due to her 15:01 average fight time and veteran experience, the 58 percent finish rate of Gomes makes her a dangerous threat in any high-impact exchange. The statistical lean favors the volume and defense of Yan in her home region.
Frequently asked questions
- Who has the advantage in striking volume and power?
- Yan Xiaonan holds the volume edge with 4.69 strikes landed per minute compared to 4.43 for Denise Gomes. However, Gomes possesses more proven power, evidenced by her 0.43 knockdown average and 58 percent finish rate, whereas Yan maintains a 0.15 knockdown average.
- How do their grappling statistics compare?
- Denise Gomes is the more active grappler, averaging 1.45 takedowns per 15 minutes and 0.72 submission attempts. Yan Xiaonan averages 0.84 takedowns and has a submission average of 0. Both fighters possess similar takedown defense, with Gomes at 67 percent and Yan at 65 percent.
- What are the key physical and age differences?
- Yan Xiaonan is the older fighter at 37 years of age, while Denise Gomes is 26. Yan has a height advantage at 165 cm compared to 157 cm for Gomes, though both fighters share an identical reach of 63 inches.
Informational analysis generated from public statistics and screened by automated quality checks. Not wagering advice.
Standing68%
Clinch21%
Ground11%