← UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs SongBilal HasanNilson Rojas

Bilal Hasan vs Nilson RojasUFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song

Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas — Flyweight — is scheduled for Saturday, August 29, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song in Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Main Card · FlyweightID · F9710EAE-1FC9-4F3C-A936-21D4B4EF38DA

Rank NR · Flyweight

Bilal Hasan

"The IndoNinja"

9-0-0 · MMA

Rank NR · Flyweight

Nilson Rojas

"El Rayo"

9-0-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Hasan

56%

Edge12%

Rojas

44%

Skill Comparison

95
50
Striking
48
50
Wrestling
84
70
Cardio
70
70
Takedown Defense
79
70
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

HasanMetricRojas
5' 7"Height5' 5"
70"Reach—
25Age27
—Stance—
89%Finish Rate78%

Career Records

HasanMetricRojas
7Wins by KO/TKO7
1Wins by Submission0
4First-Round Finishes4
28Sig. Strikes / Min—
4Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min—
81%Striking Accuracy—
57%Striking Defense—
20Knockdown Avg / 15 min—
0Takedowns / 15 min—
0Submissions / 15 min—
00:45Avg. Fight Time00:00

Strike Distribution

Hasan

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

81%

Body

10%

Leg

10%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Hasan

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 24%Standing24%
Clinch — 0%Clinch0%
Ground — 76%Ground76%

Primary Position Ground

Rojas

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Balanced

Head

0%

Body

0%

Leg

0%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Rojas

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Hasan

Strengths

  • MMA route
  • Opportunity to dictate the preferred phase

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Force a mma-first fight
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Nilson Rojas changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Rojas

Strengths

  • MMA route
  • Opportunity to disrupt the favorite’s rhythm

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Force a mma-first fight
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Bilal Hasan changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Hasan
Key Advantages
  • MMA route
  • Opportunity to dictate the preferred phase
  • MMA route
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Nilson Rojas can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Bilal Hasan has the more repeatable statistical and stylistic route, while Nilson Rojas retains a credible upset path if the fight stays in the preferred phase.

Forecast

Expect Bilal Hasan and Nilson Rojas to test the matchup's primary phase early. Bilal Hasan is projected to create the more sustainable offense over the scheduled distance, but confidence is moderated wherever UFC sample size is thin. The leading projection is Bilal Hasan by decision or a later finish.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup turns on phase control. Bilal Hasan brings a mma-leaning profile, while Nilson Rojas is best described as a mma. The official UFC rates favor Bilal Hasan across enough repeatable categories to justify a 56% model lean. The opposing route remains live because style, debut-level samples and regional experience are not fully captured by UFC rate statistics.

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