← UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs SongAndre LimaNamsrai Batbayar

Andre Lima vs Namsrai BatbayarUFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song

Andre Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar — Flyweight — is scheduled for Saturday, August 29, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song in Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Prelim · FlyweightID · 0D331679-2573-41B1-B44C-BF8C5005688D

Rank NR · Flyweight

Andre Lima

"Mascote"

11-1-0 · Striker

Rank NR · Flyweight

Namsrai Batbayar

"Steppe Warrior"

10-1-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Lima

62%

Edge24%

Batbayar

38%

Skill Comparison

68
66
Striking
52
63
Wrestling
81
87
Cardio
76
100
Takedown Defense
83
80
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

LimaMetricBatbayar
5' 7"Height5' 4"
67.5"Reach68"
27Age25
—Stance—
45%Finish Rate100%

Career Records

LimaMetricBatbayar
5Wins by KO/TKO5
0Wins by Submission5
4First-Round Finishes6
3.94Sig. Strikes / Min4.44
2.66Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.42
57%Striking Accuracy45%
59%Striking Defense48%
0Knockdown Avg / 15 min2.85
1.11Takedowns / 15 min2.85
10%Takedown Accuracy0%
76%Takedown Defense100%
0.93Submissions / 15 min0.95
13:30Avg. Fight Time05:16

Strike Distribution

Lima

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

45%

Body

21%

Leg

34%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Lima

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 87%Standing87%
Clinch — 9%Clinch9%
Ground — 4%Ground4%

Primary Position Standing

Batbayar

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

76%

Body

7%

Leg

17%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Batbayar

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 57%Standing57%
Clinch — 16%Clinch16%
Ground — 27%Ground27%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Lima

Strengths

  • SApM edge (3.42 vs 2.66)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Force a striker-first fight
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Namsrai Batbayar changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Batbayar

Strengths

  • SLpM edge (4.44 vs 3.94)
  • TD/15 edge (2.85 vs 1.11)
  • TDD edge (100 vs 76)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Force a mma-first fight
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Andre Lima changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Lima
Key Advantages
  • SLpM edge (4.44 vs 3.94)
  • TD/15 edge (2.85 vs 1.11)
  • SApM edge (3.42 vs 2.66)
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Namsrai Batbayar can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Andre Lima has the more repeatable statistical and stylistic route, while Namsrai Batbayar retains a credible upset path if the fight stays in the preferred phase.

Forecast

Expect Namsrai Batbayar and Andre Lima to test the matchup's primary phase early. Andre Lima is projected to create the more sustainable offense over the scheduled distance, but confidence is moderated wherever UFC sample size is thin. The leading projection is Andre Lima by decision or a later finish.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup turns on phase control. Namsrai Batbayar brings a mma-leaning profile, while Andre Lima is best described as a striker. The official UFC rates favor Andre Lima across enough repeatable categories to justify a 62% model lean. The opposing route remains live because style, debut-level samples and regional experience are not fully captured by UFC rate statistics.

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