← UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs SongFrancesco NuzziXiao Long

Francesco Nuzzi vs Xiao LongUFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song

Francesco Nuzzi vs Xiao Long — Bantamweight — is scheduled for Saturday, August 29, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song in Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Prelim · BantamweightID · 7331115F-2AFA-420D-B880-616C8E01B957

Rank NR · Bantamweight

Francesco Nuzzi

"Berserker"

11-2-0 · MMA

Xiao Long

Rank NR · Bantamweight

Xiao Long

27-11-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Nuzzi

45%

Edge10%

Long

55%

Skill Comparison

50
69
Striking
50
50
Wrestling
70
81
Cardio
70
82
Takedown Defense
70
78
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

NuzziMetricLong
5' 7"Height5' 8"
—Reach70"
29Age28
—Stance—
73%Finish Rate52%

Career Records

NuzziMetricLong
5Wins by KO/TKO5
3Wins by Submission9
8First-Round Finishes5
—Sig. Strikes / Min5.06
—Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min3.85
—Striking Accuracy47%
—Striking Defense50%
—Knockdown Avg / 15 min0.15
—Takedowns / 15 min0.74
—Takedown Accuracy11%
—Takedown Defense82%
—Submissions / 15 min0
00:00Avg. Fight Time14:30

Strike Distribution

Nuzzi

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Balanced

Head

0%

Body

0%

Leg

0%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Nuzzi

Long

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

56%

Body

26%

Leg

18%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Long

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 70%Standing70%
Clinch — 25%Clinch25%
Ground — 5%Ground5%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Nuzzi

Strengths

  • MMA route
  • Opportunity to disrupt the favorite’s rhythm

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Force a mma-first fight
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Xiao Long changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Long

Strengths

  • MMA route
  • Opportunity to dictate the preferred phase

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Force a mma-first fight
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Francesco Nuzzi changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Long
Key Advantages
  • MMA route
  • Opportunity to dictate the preferred phase
  • MMA route
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Francesco Nuzzi can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Xiao Long has the more repeatable statistical and stylistic route, while Francesco Nuzzi retains a credible upset path if the fight stays in the preferred phase.

Forecast

Expect Xiao Long and Francesco Nuzzi to test the matchup's primary phase early. Xiao Long is projected to create the more sustainable offense over the scheduled distance, but confidence is moderated wherever UFC sample size is thin. The leading projection is Xiao Long by decision or a later finish.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup turns on phase control. Xiao Long brings a mma-leaning profile, while Francesco Nuzzi is best described as a mma. The official UFC rates favor Xiao Long across enough repeatable categories to justify a 55% model lean. The opposing route remains live because style, debut-level samples and regional experience are not fully captured by UFC rate statistics.

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