The Flyweight division takes center stage at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song on August 29, 2026, as Kevin Borjas faces Rei Tsuruya at the Oriental Sports Center in Shanghai. This matchup presents a classic stylistic confrontation between a striker and a wrestler. While Kevin Borjas brings a high-volume striking approach, Rei Tsuruya enters with a grappling-heavy profile designed to neutralize stand-up threats. The analytical model projects a 62 percent win probability for Rei Tsuruya, though the volatility of the lighter weight classes remains a factor.
Striking Exchange and Volume
Kevin Borjas operates as the more active striker in this pairing, landing 3.87 significant strikes per minute compared to the 2.4 strikes landed per minute by Rei Tsuruya. Borjas utilizes a high-impact approach, evidenced by his 8 wins by knockout and a knockdown average of 0.49 per fifteen minutes. However, this volume comes with defensive risks, as Borjas absorbs 5.27 strikes per minute, a significantly higher rate than the 1.91 strikes absorbed per minute by Tsuruya. Tsuruya maintains a striking accuracy of 54 percent, which exceeds the 43 percent accuracy of Borjas. While Borjas focuses 77 percent of his strikes on the head, Tsuruya is even more specialized, targeting the head with 90 percent of his significant strikes. Borjas must leverage his 50 percent striking defense to avoid the precise, albeit less frequent, counters from Tsuruya.
Grappling and Control Mechanics
The grappling department is where Rei Tsuruya holds his most distinct statistical advantage. Tsuruya averages 5.03 takedowns per fifteen minutes, whereas Kevin Borjas has a takedown average of 0. The submission threat is also heavily tilted toward Tsuruya, who maintains a submission average of 2.01 per fifteen minutes and has secured 5 wins by submission throughout his career. Borjas relies on a takedown defense of 73 percent to keep the fight standing, which will be tested by Tsuruya's wrestling style. Tsuruya’s own takedown defense is lower at 50 percent, but his offensive wrestling is the primary driver of his 79 wrestling rating. For Borjas, the challenge is maintaining distance, as he has 0 wins by submission and lacks an offensive grappling game to counter Tsuruya if the fight hits the canvas.
Pace and Cardio Sustainability
Conditioning and fight duration metrics suggest two different tempos for these flyweights. Kevin Borjas has an average fight time of 12:59, indicating a tendency to compete deep into the scheduled rounds. Rei Tsuruya, conversely, has a shorter average fight time of 09:56, supported by a high finish rate of 82 percent. The cardio ratings are closely contested, with Tsuruya holding a slight edge at 84 compared to 82 for Borjas. Tsuruya’s ability to sustain 5.03 takedown attempts per fifteen minutes requires immense energy, but his lower strikes absorbed per minute helps preserve his 83 chin durability. Borjas has shown durability through 3 wins by decision, but his high strikes absorbed per minute rate could lead to fatigue if he cannot find a knockout early to validate his 73 percent finish rate.
Strategic Paths to Victory
The path for Kevin Borjas involves keeping the fight in the preferred striking phase and utilizing his 68 inch reach to land significant strikes. With 8 wins by knockout, Borjas needs to exploit his 0.49 knockdown average to disrupt Tsuruya's rhythm. The model notes that one high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline, which is Borjas's most credible route to an upset. For Rei Tsuruya, the objective is to implement his wrestler-leaning profile immediately. By utilizing his 5.03 takedowns per fifteen minutes, he can minimize the 3.87 strikes landed per minute by Borjas. Tsuruya’s path is built on repeatable grappling success and his 2.01 submission average, aiming to capitalize on Borjas’s lack of offensive wrestling and submission history to secure a finish or a dominant decision.
What the Model Sees
The analytical model favors Rei Tsuruya with a 62 percent win probability, driven largely by the disparity in grappling metrics and defensive efficiency. Tsuruya’s significant advantage in strikes absorbed per minute (1.91 vs 5.27) and his high takedown frequency provide a more sustainable statistical route over the scheduled distance. Kevin Borjas is assigned a 38 percent win probability, representing the less-favoured side. The model identifies that Borjas can outperform these projections if he successfully forces a striking-only match, as Tsuruya’s 50 percent takedown defense and 43 percent striking defense are potential vulnerabilities. However, the lack of offensive grappling from Borjas (0 takedowns, 0 submissions) limits his tactical flexibility. The leading projection remains a victory for Tsuruya, likely via decision or a later submission as the fight progresses.
Model verdict
The model leans toward Rei Tsuruya due to his superior wrestling and defensive striking metrics. Tsuruya's 5.03 takedowns per fifteen minutes and 1.91 strikes absorbed per minute create a statistically stable path to victory compared to the high-risk, high-volume approach of Kevin Borjas. While Borjas possesses the power to secure a knockout, his 5.27 strikes absorbed per minute and lack of grappling offense make him the model's lower-probability side. Rei Tsuruya is projected to control the phase of the fight, utilizing his 82 percent finish rate to potentially end the contest before the final bell.
Frequently asked questions
- What is the primary statistical difference between Borjas and Tsuruya?
- The most significant gap is in grappling and defensive striking. Rei Tsuruya averages 5.03 takedowns per fifteen minutes and absorbs only 1.91 strikes per minute, whereas Kevin Borjas averages 0 takedowns and absorbs 5.27 strikes per minute.
- How does the finish rate compare for both fighters?
- Rei Tsuruya holds a higher finish rate of 82 percent, with a mix of 4 knockouts and 5 submissions. Kevin Borjas has a 73 percent finish rate, which is almost entirely dependent on his 8 wins by knockout.
- Does either fighter have a reach advantage?
- No, both fighters possess an identical reach of 68 inches. However, Rei Tsuruya is slightly taller at 168 cm compared to the 165 cm height of Kevin Borjas.
Informational analysis generated from public statistics and screened by automated quality checks. Not wagering advice.
Standing94%
Clinch5%
Ground1%