← UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs SongKevin BorjasRei Tsuruya

Kevin Borjas vs Rei TsuruyaUFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song

Kevin Borjas vs Rei Tsuruya — Flyweight — is scheduled for Saturday, August 29, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song in Oriental Sports Center, Shanghai. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

slot.Prelim · FlyweightID · A400B237-157A-4DB2-A28B-4BF1580C886C
Kevin Borjas

Rank NR · Flyweight

Kevin Borjas

"El Gallo Negro"

11-5-0 · Striker

Rei Tsuruya

Rank NR · Flyweight

Rei Tsuruya

11-1-0 · Wrestler

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Borjas

38%

Edge24%

Tsuruya

62%

Skill Comparison

61
60
Striking
45
79
Wrestling
82
84
Cardio
73
50
Takedown Defense
74
83
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

BorjasMetricTsuruya
5' 5"Height5' 6"
68"Reach68"
28Age24
—Stance—
73%Finish Rate82%

Career Records

BorjasMetricTsuruya
8Wins by KO/TKO4
0Wins by Submission5
5First-Round Finishes5
3.87Sig. Strikes / Min2.40
5.27Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min1.91
43%Striking Accuracy54%
50%Striking Defense43%
0.49Knockdown Avg / 15 min0
0Takedowns / 15 min5.03
0%Takedown Accuracy6%
73%Takedown Defense50%
0Submissions / 15 min2.01
12:59Avg. Fight Time09:56

Strike Distribution

Borjas

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

77%

Body

15%

Leg

8%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Borjas

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 94%Standing94%
Clinch — 5%Clinch5%
Ground — 1%Ground1%

Primary Position Standing

Tsuruya

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

90%

Body

5%

Leg

6%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Tsuruya

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 38%Standing38%
Clinch — 3%Clinch3%
Ground — 59%Ground59%

Primary Position Ground

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Borjas

Strengths

  • SLpM edge (2.4 vs 3.87)
  • TDD edge (50 vs 73)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Force a striker-first fight
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Rei Tsuruya changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Tsuruya

Strengths

  • SApM edge (1.91 vs 5.27)
  • TD/15 edge (5.03 vs 0.0)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Force a wrestler-first fight
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Kevin Borjas changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Tsuruya
Key Advantages
  • SApM edge (1.91 vs 5.27)
  • TD/15 edge (5.03 vs 0.0)
  • SLpM edge (2.4 vs 3.87)
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Kevin Borjas can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Rei Tsuruya has the more repeatable statistical and stylistic route, while Kevin Borjas retains a credible upset path if the fight stays in the preferred phase.

Forecast

Expect Rei Tsuruya and Kevin Borjas to test the matchup's primary phase early. Rei Tsuruya is projected to create the more sustainable offense over the scheduled distance, but confidence is moderated wherever UFC sample size is thin. The leading projection is Rei Tsuruya by decision or a later finish.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This matchup turns on phase control. Rei Tsuruya brings a wrestler-leaning profile, while Kevin Borjas is best described as a striker. The official UFC rates favor Rei Tsuruya across enough repeatable categories to justify a 62% model lean. The opposing route remains live because style, debut-level samples and regional experience are not fully captured by UFC rate statistics.

Picks Terminal Weekly

A tactical UFC briefing — Monday previews, Friday updates.

Every Monday: the full card preview, key matchups, and the model's forecast. Every Friday: fresh updates as fight night approaches. Free, no fluff, one-click unsubscribe.