← UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs ParnasseModestas BukauskasOumar Sy

Modestas Bukauskas vs Oumar SyUFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse

Modestas Bukauskas vs Oumar Sy — Light Heavyweight — is scheduled for Saturday, September 5, 2026 at UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse in Accor Arena, Paris. Picks Terminal covers the matchup with a win-probability estimate, a matchup breakdown and fight intel drawn from public sources.

Prelims · Light HeavyweightID · A44C6ADC-38D2-4A2D-B6B2-F0729E1DF9D0
Modestas Bukauskas

Unranked · Light Heavyweight

Modestas Bukauskas

"The Baltic Gladiator"

20-7-0 · Kickboxer

Unranked · Light Heavyweight

Oumar Sy

12-2-0 · MMA

Win Probability Model · v4.2

Bukauskas

48%

Edge4%

Sy

52%

Skill Comparison

69
72
Striking
61
59
Wrestling
69
69
Cardio
82
67
Takedown Defense
71
75
Chin Durability

Physical Attributes

BukauskasMetricSy
6' 3"Height6' 4"
76"Reach83"
32Age30
—Stance—
70%Finish Rate75%

Career Records

BukauskasMetricSy
11Wins by KO/TKO5
3Wins by Submission4
8First-Round Finishes8
3.14Sig. Strikes / Min3.41
3.86Sig. Strikes Absorbed / Min1.87
51%Striking Defense67%
0.23Knockdown Avg / 15 min2.45
82%Takedown Defense67%
0.11Submissions / 15 min0.35
10:04Avg. Fight Time08:34

Strike Distribution

Bukauskas

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

72%

Body

17%

Leg

11%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Bukauskas

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 86%Standing86%
Clinch — 9%Clinch9%
Ground — 5%Ground5%

Primary Position Standing

Sy

Sig. Strikes by Target

Primary Target Head

Head

51%

Body

19%

Leg

29%
Sig. Strikes by Target — Sy

Sig. Strikes by Position

Standing — 83%Standing83%
Clinch — 8%Clinch8%
Ground — 9%Ground9%

Primary Position Standing

Fight Intel

Public Consensus

— Consensus data unavailable —

Latest News

— No recent news —

Bukauskas

Strengths

  • TDD edge (82 vs 67)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Oumar Sy changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing
Sy

Strengths

  • SLpM edge (3.41 vs 3.14)
  • SApM edge (1.87 vs 3.86)
  • Sub/15 edge (0.35 vs 0.11)

Weaknesses

  • Potentially incomplete UFC sample
  • Can be punished when the preferred phase breaks down

Opportunities

  • Establish the preferred phase
  • Build repeatable offense over time

Threats

  • Modestas Bukauskas changing the fight phase
  • High-impact momentum swing

In-Depth Analysis

Model favors Sy
Key Advantages
  • SLpM edge (3.41 vs 3.14)
  • SApM edge (1.87 vs 3.86)
  • Sub/15 edge (0.35 vs 0.11)
Potential Concerns
  • Limited samples reduce certainty where official UFC rates are unavailable.
  • Modestas Bukauskas can outperform the model by forcing a different fight phase.
  • One high-impact exchange can override the statistical baseline.
AI Analysis

Oumar Sy has the more repeatable statistical and stylistic route, while Modestas Bukauskas retains a credible path if the fight settles in the preferred phase.

Forecast

Expect Oumar Sy and Modestas Bukauskas to test the matchup's primary phase early. Oumar Sy is projected to create the more sustainable offense, but the opposing route remains live wherever UFC sample size is thin.

Skill ratings, win probability, advantages, concerns, and forecast are AI-generated predictions based on scraped fighter profiles — not official UFC stats or guarantees.

Matchup Breakdown

This light heavyweight matchup turns on phase control and sustainable output. The available official UFC rates produce a 52% analyst-model lean toward Oumar Sy. Confidence is reduced for debutants and fighters with small UFC samples, and missing values are deliberately left null.

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